Did Race Cost Obama New Hampshire?

A bunch of interesting theories on why the pollsters were so far off in New Hampshire. One theory is called The Bradley Effect, where white voters say they will vote for a non-white candidate and then end up not. As Andrew Sullivan explains, New Hampshire was “the first primary – not a caucus. People get to vote in a secret ballot – not in front of their largely liberal peers, as in Iowa. They may have told the pollsters one thing about voting for a black man, but in the privacy of the voting booth, something else happens.”

Another interesting theory from the article: The order of the names listed on the ballot. The random starting letter was ‘Z’ and therefore Clinton showed up much higher than Obama did.

January 10, 2008