The Lotto Paradox
I really hoped this article about modeling the flu would be more interesting (especially since one of the teams doing the modeling has used data from Where’s George?). The last quote in the piece almost redeemed the whole thing, though: “‘People have a very weird perception of large numbers,’ he [Dirk Brockmann, the engineering professor who leads the epidemic-modeling team at the Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems] said. ‘If you have 2,000 cases of flu in a country of 300 million, most people think they’re going to be one of the 2,000, not one of the 299,998,000.’”
The lotto paradox?
Hi, I'm 
That’s very much the reaction I have when non-New Yorkers ask me whether I think the city is safe. When you consider the 9 million people walking around against the number of crimes … you find NY is one of the safest cities there is.
This isn’t a revolutionary idea. But, now subtract the chance you’re going to die of heart disease (since the average New Yorker walks 5-miles a day instead of the US average of 1), and the odds you die in a car crash (immensely high)…
And I’m thinking that if you’re paranoid about your safety, how could you live anywhere else?
Just to confirm Josh’s point, NYC is the safest city according to this article: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/lists/americas-safest-cities/new-york.html
With outbreaks its a hard call to make from health orgs. I think this Economist article takes a logical approach. Yes some might overreact but we do need to be prepared for something possibly more serious.
Incredibly helpful info here. BTW, I think I read a really similar article on an additional blog these days, truly i’m pretty sure. I ‘ll check it out and let you know, maybe they copied your content, who knows.
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