Noah Brier dot Com

The CSI Effect

Ha. So it turns out that because of all the CSI and Law & Order jurors are watching these days they think they know a whole lot more about forensics and criminal investigations than they really do:

Prosecutors in the United States are now spending much more time explaining to juries why certain kinds of evidence are not relevant. Prosecutors have even introduced a new kind of witness–a “negative evidence” witness–to explain that investigators often fail to find evidence at a crime scene.

Apparently it cuts both ways, though, as criminals are also watching these shows and learning some tricks to cover their tracks. I love TV.

Take Down

I do like it when people intelligently pick apart an argument that gets passed around the echo chamber. Over at his blog Whimsley, Tom Slee was kind enough to do just that to Clay Shirky’s “Collapse of Complex Business Models” essay. The money quote comes towards the end, “Complexity is not going away. It’s just moving to a different spot in the production chain, and as it moves so does the balance of power.”

Also, interestingly, the essay kills an argument I’ve made myself: Pointing out that the “Charlie bit me” video no longer tops the YouTube all-time most watched list. That spot is now held by none other than Lady Gaga. “The most watched video made in the last five years shows Lady Gaga and a group of hired models dancing on an elaborate set in a video that embodies complex production methods, that is part of the Vevo channel (a joint venture between Google and major record labels) and that features product placements by Nemiroff Vodka, Parrot by Starck, Carerra sunglasses, and HP Envy.” So there’s that.

Football Culture

At first I assumed this article about England’s chances in the World Cup was going to be the regular apply statistical analysis to sport story. (Not that that isn’t a good story, it’s still amazing that so much money is spent without anyone paying attention to the numbers.) While it does hit on that, it also gets into the effect of Europe’s geography on team styles, which I found incredibly interesting.

From 1970 to 2000, a few continental European countries – Italy, Germany, France and Holland – worked out the best collective style of football. Each of these countries has its own preferences, but all share certain elements: fast, physical, collectivist, one-touch football. Their advantage was sitting in the most interconnected region in history. Football thinkers such as Arsene Wenger and Arrigo Sacchi could travel across porous borders, gathering and spreading knowledge.

From 1970 to 2000, the national teams of these countries piled up trophies. In the same period, the countries on Europe’s margins – the Brits, Iberians, former Soviet republics and Balkans – won none. They were isolated, excluded from the best knowledge networks and, therefore, stuck with their dysfunctional indigenous football styles. The Brits played kick-and-rush. The Greeks dribbled too much. However, from about 2000, the marginal countries came in from the cold. They became more integrated with core Europe, through travel, trade and football’s growing Champions League. Many countries – such as England and Greece – hired continental European football managers. Quickly, they absorbed continental know-how. Of all the formerly marginal countries, none did better out of this trend than Spain.

Planeless

In celebration of the closing of Heathrow, Alain de Botton imagines a future without airplanes:

The wise elders would explain that inside the aircraft, passengers, who had only paid the price of a few books for the privilege, would impatiently and ungratefully shut their window blinds to the views, would sit in silence next to strangers while watching films about love and friendship – and would complain that the food in miniature plastic beakers before them was not quite as tasty as the sort they could prepare in their own kitchens.

What Matters?

The always interesting Kevin Kelly points out how boring most of the stuff people put in time capsules really turns out to be and how what we should really be saving are things like the stickers we put on bananas or the lids we use for coffee …

Because they are not trying to be anything other than what they are — any beauty they contain is functional — they also transmit the subtexts of their time. The “meaning” of the placement of the ridges and holes in the take-out beverage lids reveal all kinds of things about how and where these beverages are being sold and consumed. The designs will tell folks in the future far more about our lives today than tiny models of Darth Vader.

War Paint

Sociological Images has a great set of photos that show how factories camouflaged themselves during World War II. Especially interesting is this explanation they picked up from The Library of Congress World War II Companion:

A year before the United States entered the war, Kansas City’s Art Institute offered the country’s first classes in industrial camouflage, and other schools soon followed suit. In a short-lived blackout measure, steel mills in Gary, Indiana, were shrouded in thick smoke to hide their location from enemy places. The gold dome of the Massachusetts state house in Boston was painted gray, so it would not stand out, and elsewhere other important secular structures were topped with church steeples… The most ambitious deceptions, which fooled even local pilots, were the fake suburban neighborhoods and small towns built of plywood and chicken wire atop aircraft factories one the West Coast… Small plywood houses, rubber cars, clotheslines, and artificial plants dotted the three-dimensional landscape (p. 179).

Flying with Kindle

This is a bit of travel nerdery that I thought might be worth sharing. Last week the TSA blog explained the agency’s position on netbooks, e-readers and the such:

Electronic items smaller than the standard sized laptop should not need to be removed from your bag or their cases. It’s that simple.

First thing, the TSA has a blog?!?!? Second, they go one to explain that the more cluttered your bag is, the more it will need to be emptied (something I experienced this week coming home from Charlotte where I was told I “had too much stuff”). For what it’s worth, I feel like I should print this out and present it to TSA agents when I’m told I must always take out my Kindle … though I can’t imagine that would help matters.

Thinking About Innovation

Last week I linked to a presentation I gave about innovation to VCU and some people seem to have liked it, so I figured I’d repost it here with a bit more context.

A few months ago I got an email from a BrandCenter student named Adam Wiese about adding a brand to Brand Tags. We got to chatting a bit and he suggested I should come down to BrandCenter and give a talk. I told him I’d be happy to and next think I knew I had an email from Caley Cantrell, who teaches innovation at the school, asking me if I’d like to come down.

I said yes, scheduled it for a few months later and all was well until about a month before when I realized that I was being asked to tackle a topic I sort of hate discussing. The word innovation makes my skin crawl a bit. It’s so overused at this point that it’s all but meaningless and I had no idea where to begin. So, that’s where I began … I decided that if I was going to go talk about innovation I was going to do my best to really define the word. In the end, I’m not sure I totally succeeded, but I did uncover a whole bunch of very interesting writing on the topic. Especially interesting to me were some of the ideas of early 20th century Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, who wrote extensively on entrepreneurialism and what he saw as an outgrowth: Innovation.

Okay, now a pause for the presentation.

Like I said, I’m not sure I succeeded at defining it, but I found Schumpeter’s framework of invention, innovation and diffusion really helped guide my thinking. Schumpeter actually simplifies the ideas even further when he talks about entrepreneurs. Essentially he wrote that there were three separate roles in the innovation process: The capitalist, who provides the money, the inventor, who creates the idea and the entrepreneur, who adapts the idea and brings it to market. While these roles are often played by a single person, it does not make them a separate role. (He goes on to talk about the value of separating the financial burden from the entrepreneur to enable them to focus on the task at hand.)

I think this separation is often overlooked, and so did Schumpter:

Economic leadership in particular must hence be distinguished from “invention.” As long as they are not carried into practice, inventions are economically irrelevant. And to carry any improvement into effect is a task entirely different from the inventing of it, and a task, moreover, requiring entirely different kinds of aptitudes. Although entrepreneurs of course may be inventors just as they may be capitalists, they are inventors not by nature of their function but by coincidence and vice versa. Besides, the innovations which it is the function of entrepreneurs to carry out need not necessarily be any inventions at all. It is, therefore, not advisable, and it may be downright misleading, to stress the element of invention as much as many writers do.

Finally, a bit about the role of research and its impact on innovation. In 1980 Robert Hayes and William Abernathy wrote a now well-known Harvard Business Review article titled Managing Our Way to Economic Decline. In it they wrote this about the role of research in organizations:

Our experience suggests that, to an unprecedented degree, success in most industries today requires an organizational commitment to compete in the marketplace on technological grounds–that is, to compete over the long run by offering superior products. Yet, guided by what they took to be the newest and best principles of management, American managers have increasingly directed their attention elsewhere. These new principles, despite their sophistication and widespread usefulness, encourage a preference for (1) analytic detachment rather than the insight that comes from hands-on experience and (2) short-term cost reduction rather than long-term development of technological competitiveness. It is this new managerial gospel, we feel, that has played a major role in undermining the vigor of American industry.

Twenty two years later, Clayton Christensen wrote this in a Technology Review article titled Rules of Innovation:

What drove Sony’s shift from a disruptive to a sustaining innovation strategy? Prior to 1980, all new product launch decisions were made by cofounder Akio Morita and a trusted team of associates. They never did market research, believing that if markets did not exist they could not be analyzed. Their process for assessing new opportunities relied on personal intuition. In the 1980s Morita withdrew from active management in order to be more involved in Japanese politics. The company consequently began hiring marketing and product-planning professionals who brought with them data-intensive, analytical processes of doing market research. Those processes were very good at uncovering unmet customer needs in existing product markets. But making the intuitive bets required to launch disruptive businesses became impossible.

To be honest, I don’t feel like we’ve gotten anywhere on this one. Christensen made the same point as Hayes/Abernathy 22 years later and here we are, eight years after that, complaining about the same thing (or praising Steve Jobs for not subscribing). Interestingly, Managing Our Way to Economic Decline places much of the blame on the shift in corporate mindset from a one that makes someone with a technical background president, to one that makes someone with a financial/legal background president (see chart below).

Change in Corporate Presidents

I hadn’t ever seen this, and would be quite curious to see what this chart would look like with the last thirty years on it (I imagine finance and legal has taken an even larger chunk). I don’t really have some great insight here, but it does go a long way to explaining why so many large organizations are so disappointing from an innovation perspective.

Anyway, I could keep going and going and going, but I’m going to stop (somewhat abruptly) here. I have some more quotes and stuff I collected and I quote post if folks are so inclined, but I can’t imagine you’ve actually made it to the bottom of all this, so maybe that’s best done in another post.

The Language of Physics

I can’t remember where I came across the link to this forum post explaining how math and physics work together, but it’s been open in my browser for a month or so and I finally decided to read it this morning. It’s a really nicely written explanation of why and how physicists use math:

But if you want to know why things are the way they are, and in fact if you really actually want to know how they are, then you have to do more than just describe them, which we call “qualification;” you have to describe them in detail, which we call “quantification.” In other words, “there’s some rocks” is a qualitative description; “there are eighteen rocks located as follows, of the following sizes and compositions and masses,” is a quantitative description. The first is good enough for natural language; the second is only barely good enough for the simplest kind of physics. Physicists get really, really precise about how they describe things, and to do that, they use math.

The post goes on to explain, “But you always have to remember that the math is just a description; it’s the old thing about the map, not the territory. You can look at the map all you want, but until you’ve walked it you really don’t quite know what’s there. And when you have a bunch of math that describes stuff you can’t ever directly sense for yourself, then you have to just trust the math, and look for ways to check it.” Just thought it was all quite nicely put.

Lighter Fare

Some fun for your Saturday morning:

  1. College Humor gets into the head of all those video game bosses who are forced to constantly watch their minions get defeated by a single guy with terrible weapons.
  2. In case you forgot we live in a pretty amazing time, here’s your reminder: Aimee Mann calls out Ice T for bad acting on Twitter, to which Ice T replies in a manner only he could pull off. (It’s possible you will find Ice T’s response offensive … Not really sure why, but I guess it’s possible, so consider yourself warned.) Try to imagine it’s ten years ago and someone tells you that Aimee Mann is going to call out Ice T for bad acting on some crazy website where people only talk in 140 characters. Imagine that!
  3. Let the anti-infographic movement begin. [Via Waxy]

Mobile Front-end

I don’t know that I care that much about Apple’s new ad platform, but this quote from Steve Jobs on the topic got me thinking:

“On a mobile device, search is not where it’s at, not like on the desktop,” he said. “They’re using apps to get to data on the internet, not generalised search.”

I guess I knew that (the app thing), but I had never thought of it in quite those terms. What are the implications if the internet is all really just data for apps? How does that change the content we create and the way we design it? (If at all.) Not sure I know the answers (or I’m just too tired right this minute), but it’s certainly an interesting concept.

Gibson on Brands

Over at his blog William Gibson answers why he is so obsessed with brand name apparel:

It’s one of the ways in which I feel I understand how the world works, and there aren’t really that many of those. It’s not about clothes, though, or branding; it’s about code, subtext. I was really delighted, for instance, to learn who made George Bush’s raincoats. A company in Little Rock (now extinct, alas) but they were made of Ventile, a British cotton so tightly woven that you can make fire hoses (and RAF ocean survival suits) out of it. Which exists because Churchill demanded it, because the Germans had all the flax production sewn up. No flax, no fire hoses for the Blitz. The cultural complexities that put that particular material on Bush’s back delight me deeply; it’s a kind of secret history (and not least because most people would find it fantastically boring, I imagine).

Don’t really have anything to add, just thought it was interesting.

Bodega List

If you live in New York City you spend a fair amount of time in bodegas. Whether it’s picking up a breakfast sandwich at 9am or some toilet paper at 2am, they are a staple of life in the city. A site called Bodega List (via Bobulate) is trying to make a webpage for every bodega in the city (that’s quite an undertaking when you figure there is at least one bodega every three blocks or so). What might be most interesting, though, is the method being used to identify and create the pages. Rather than doing it by hand, the site’s creator, Jeff Sisson, has created a tool called, creatively, Is This a Bodega?. The tool serves up a Google Street View image with three response options: This is a bodega, this isn’t a bodega and I’m not sure (the listings come from off-premise liquor license listings on the New York State Liquor Authority website).

All in all, it seems pretty rad and on top of that it spits out some cool images.

Quiet

Things have been, and will probably continue to be, a bit quiet around here for awhile. Here’s a quick rundown of what I’ve been up to (with some links and commentary thrown in for good measure.

I’ve been:

  • Moving (to Brooklyn)
  • Planning a wedding (in May)
  • Traveling (a lot)
  • Reading Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime
  • Giving presentations (including one on innovation, with a focus on marketing agencies, that I just posted on SlideShare)
  • Reading about the iPad. Come on, who hasn’t? Favorite comments so far: come from (1) Stephen Colbert and, slightly more seriously, (2) Cory Doctorow who argues that the closed nature of the device holds us users in contempt. It’s interesting to me because he’s an interesting dude, but also because I had read it slightly differently. To me, the move to iPad/iPhone is further down the road of technology we can’t break. For those of us that grew up with videogames, this is a perfect evolution. In those games we never read manuals, we just picked up the games and figured it out, because the worst thing that could happen is you died and started over again. With the iPhone/iPad it’s becoming impossible to break your technology (without dropping it of course), which could also mean that people are less intimidated by innovations and more likely to dig deeper/learn more. Not saying I know the answer to what the future will look like, just offering a different read.
  • [On this topic, what would happen if Firefox or Google wanted to release a browser for the iPad. Could Apple prevent them? Couldn't they be taken to court and lose on the same anti-trust grounds as Microsoft a decade ago? Anyone know the answer to this?]
  • Thinking about The New Rules of War thanks to a very good Foreign Policy article by John Arquilla (who also wrote Cyberwar is Coming in 1993 [download link at the bottom], which I highly recommend).
  • Thinking a lot about serendipity. I’m really fascinated by the role of serendipity in the 21st century. Terry Heaton, one of my favorite media thinkers, linked to a Jeff Jarvis post about the topic: “What is serendipity? It’s not a story from left field. It’s not, I think, ‘the opposite of what you normally consumed.’ There’s a reason we find value in the supposedly serendipitous. When I started Entertainment Weekly, I said that our features had to satisfy a curiosity you didn’t know you had — but you end up having it. When we read a paper and find a good story that we couldn’t have predicted we’d have liked, we think that is serendipity. But there’s some reason we like it, that we find it relevant to us. Maybe that relevance is the unknown but now fed curiosity, maybe it’s enjoyment of good writing or a certain kind of tale, maybe the gift of some interesting fact we want to share and gain social equity for, maybe it’s a challenge to our ideas, maybe an answer to a question that has bugged us. In the end, it has value to us; it’s relevant.”
  • Other stuff that I can’t think about right now.

Anyway, apologies in advance for the slowdown. Will at least try to do some catch-ups once-in-a-while.

Bureaucracy

Clay Shirkey’s write-up on the collapse of complexity is worth a read in its entirety, but one paragraph in particular jumped out at me:

Bureaucracies temporarily reverse the Second Law of Thermodynamics. In a bureaucracy, it’s easier to make a process more complex than to make it simpler, and easier to create a new burden than kill an old one.

This wasn’t because it was magically insightful, but rather because it reminded me of the most memorable thing I heard at SXSW (which I haven’t talked about much around here). It came during a talk called Gaming the System with 4chan hosted by moot and Jason Scott. Both came from Jason Scott, first noting that “before there were trolls there were bureaucrats” and then noting that the thing that people like so much about the game of Wikipedia is that you get to play a character no other game has: The bureaucrat. Fun stuff for a Friday evening.