Mobile Archives
Quick, who's the biggest manufacturer of cameras in the world? Nope, it's not
Kodak. Not
Canon or
Sony or
Pentax.
Polaroid? . . . Wrong! The answer is
Nokia. According to an
O'Reilly Digital Media article titled
"The File Manager Is Dead. Long Live the Lifeblog":
In the last five years, says Lindholm [a higher-up at Nokia], "Nokia has become the world's largest camera manufacturer." Bet no one at Kodak or Canon saw that coming five years ago.
Wow. I read this and was amazed at first, but when I thought about it made perfect sense. Mobile phones have become the most ubiquitous technological device on earth. For every person walking around New York with an iPod and white headphones, I see ten people walking around talking on their cell phone. You know a device has been accepted by a culture when you stop noticing it. Cell phones are everywhere. It's a cliche to say you can't imagine life without it. But it's true, it's hard to imagine how I used to do something as simple as making plans with people before my mobile phone.
One of the things I thought about for my presentation (which has been postponed for anyone interested), is just how amazing it is that there are young people around today who have never really lived in a world without mobile devices. While most of us can remember back to what life was like when all we had to remember when we left home was our keys and wallet, young people will never know that world. I'm not making a statement about whether this is a good or a bad thing, just that it's something that's hard for me to comprehend.
Today mobile phones have become the ultimate platform. It's affordable enough that most people have one and replace it every few years and it's small enough that you truly never leave home without it. What's more, all your billing information is already intertwined with it, making it a great way for companies to encourage you to buy things without thinking about (kind of like credit cards). A recent BusinessWeek article titled "iPod Killers" put it like this:
The ringtone boom has made the record labels enthusiastic supporters of the wireless companies. "Carriers are a new kind of retailer with massive reach," says Eric Nicoli, chairman of EMI Group PLC, one of the four major music companies. "Plus, they have a competitive advantage over online services because their consumers can truly make impulse purchases on their phones."
I think it's safe to say that mobile phones are in the domain of few other pieces of technology. It's kind of interesting to think about a few factors that make it such a unique and successful gadget.
1. It's wireless. It took a well-established technology in the telephone and let you take it anywhere. It maintained the advantages of the telephone while at the same time adding extra desirability and function by making it mobile.
2. It's expandable. One of the most important advances of the second half of the 20th century was expandability. Software allows you to build your own custom configuration on top of the default settings. What makes computers so powerful is the software that runs on them. Just look at today's software to understand the power of expandability. After I got over tabs, my favorite feature of Firefox is the ability to add extensions. Essentially you're using software on top of software to customize the look and feel of your browsing experience. Greasemonkey takes this a step further, by allowing you to customize your extension and, in turn, alter your experience past just your browser and right down to the webpage level. (Just as a note: I am aware I need to write about Greasemonkey . . . it's coming.)
3. It's everywhere.
It's quite easy to understand that the more widespread a technology becomes the more significant it is in the lives of its users. When Alex Graham Bell (I call him Alex . . . we were tight) was the only guy with a phone it wasn't all that useful. He could pick it up and pretend to talk to someone, I guess, but really it's usefulness lies in its mass adoption. When everyone else has a cellphone it's hard to live without one because they all expect you to be reachable.
When you throw in some of those other factors (tied directly to your finances, small enough to fit in your pocket, etc.), it's not hard to understand why mobile phones are so important as a platform of the future. However, I write that with a caveat: the mobile phone we'll see ten years from now will be nothing like the one we see today. The building blocks of mobile is in place, but the future of the phone is in convergence. Not just of cameras and music, but of computers and later your whole digital life. As more and more of life moves digital, we'll need a place to keep it all and a device to access it with.
This is what Nokia wants to do with it's Lifeblog, whether it'll be successful is a question to be answered at another time, but it's certainly fun to think about.
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I was just thinking about wireless technology for this presentation I'm
giving in a few weeks and realized that
the more we choose to unplug our devices from the grid, the more we also choose to plug ourselves into our devices. How many people do you see with white headphones every day? How about talking to themselves through their mobile phone headset? People are increasingly getting lost in their mobile devices.
I'm as bad as anyone. I never leave anywhere without my headphones on. Imagine the action I miss as I walk through New York City with my own soundtrack playing. And I'm certainly not the only one.
What's even more sad, though, is what could be lost in the future. Bird chirps may hold no meaning for the next generation. And how many more people will miss seeing a friend because their lost in the own world? In a Guardian article titled "A generation lost in it's personal space," John Naughton writes:
This will change with the maturing of generations who have grown up with headphones welded to their ears. And as a result, our concept of social space will change. Imagine the future: a crowded urban street, filled not with people interacting with one another, but with atomised individuals cocooned in their personalised sound-bubbles, moving from one retail opportunity to another. The only sounds are the shuffling of feet and the rock muzak blaring from the doorways of specialised leisurewear chains.
It's a scary image and one I don't have the brain power to completely think through this evening.
Then again, as we're closing ourselves out of certain parts of the world, we're also opening ourselves up to whole other aspects. Although this is certainly a whole other entry, I've been thinking a lot lately about whether you can measure (in degrees of separation) the real impact on social interaction. I have a feeling that the internet moves six degrees down to four. (But that discussion is for another time.)
That could mean while we're losing some interaction we're making up for it in other places. Maybe our social world is not wilting but evolving.
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It's time for another installment of presentation prep. Since I'm including little to no commentary in these posts (for now), I would love it if people weighed in with some thoughts. I don't want to beg for comments but . . . . please please please.
Alright, enough kidding around, time to get serious now, here are some more quotes and numbers from another round of mobile articles, hope you enjoy.
Education
8. Rheingold, Howard. "M-Learning 4 Generation Txt?" TheFeature. November 4, 2004.
Alexander prefers "mobile" to "wireless" or "ubiquitous" because "none of these terms really grasp one key feature of the new milieu: the modeling of subjects as creative, communicative participants rather than as passive, reception-only consumers. We lack a term for describing the world as a writeable and readable service, encompassing mobile phones forming communities, P2P handheld gaming, moblogging, and uploading to RFID chips. For now, and to retain the educational focus, I’ll use m-learning."
. . .
Blogs and wikis were yesterday. Moblogging is today. Tomorrow, Alexander anticipates the arrival of sensor networks, digitally tagged objects and places, augmented reality, location-based knowledge, and something Alexander calls "swarm learning."
"Perhaps we are beginning to see the emergence of learning swarms," Alexander ventures: "We already know the precursors, in the form of interested learners who appear at campus libraries and museums, driven by an experience that excited them, such as a film, a book, or a conversation. Now the socializing powers of mobility and wirelessness could expand this drive into collaboration. An interested learner could ping a network or site for learning engagement: digital objects, digitally tagged materials, learning objects, instructors, other learners and instigators.
9.
"South Korean Students Burned for SMS Cheating." MobileMag. December 3, 2004.
After tracing SMS messages by phone numbers and matching them with test times, investigators were able to uncover evidence of over 350 South Korean students that were swapping answers back and forth on their mobiles last week. This may not be the end of it either, they suspect up to 600,000 students in total to be involved in this type of text-message cheating. Others are being questioned for paying college students to take exams in their place using fake identification.
Cord Cutting
10. "Home phones face uncertain future." BBC News. October 22, 2004.
According to the study, more than 45 million people in the UK, Germany, US and South Korea now only use a mobile.
. . .
In the US and Germany many of those interviewed said they used the fixed phone because it was more reliable than a mobile handset and let them get access to the net at relatively high speeds.
Social/Cultural Implications
11. Ranger, Steve. "Mobile Backup Failure Puts Friendships in Peril." Personal Computer World. February 22, 2005.
More than one in three UK mobile phone users worry that they would lose touch with friends and contacts if they lost their mobile phones, research has claimed.
Over half of mobile users do not have a separate address book, and one in five use their mobile as their only record of phone numbers, according to research commissioned by mobile network services company Intervoice.
But the study also claims that over half of mobile users have either lost or had a phone stolen within the past three years, and a quarter have lost two or more phones in the same period.
12. Lee, Carol E.
"The New Social Etiquette: Friends Don't Let Friends Dial Drunk." The New York Times. January 30, 2005.
But unlike its predecessors, drunk dialing usually limits itself to times long after the close of business and beyond the daily commute. It is in those dark hours of late night and wee hours of early morn, when most people have retired their cellphones for overnight charging, that intoxicated revelers flip open their cellphones and dial into regret.
13. Naughton, John.
"A Generation Lost in its Personal Space." Guardian Unlimited. January 23, 2005.
And the interesting thing is that this student is typical of his generation. The proportion of young people who never venture out in public without first putting on headphones is astonishing. And yet one rarely sees anyone over 40 similarly equipped. This will change with the maturing of generations who have grown up with headphones welded to their ears. And as a result, our concept of social space will change. Imagine the future: a crowded urban street, filled not with people interacting with one another, but with atomised individuals cocooned in their personalised sound-bubbles, moving from one retail opportunity to another. The only sounds are the shuffling of feet and the rock muzak blaring from the doorways of specialised leisurewear chains.
. . .
We haven't really begun to explore the social significance of mobile telephony, but already some things are becoming clear. The first is that the technology provides some people with an opportunity - perhaps even an imperative - to ignore the fact that they are in a public space. This is shown by the readiness with which they enter into phone conversations that in earlier days would be seen as requiring privacy.
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I've been asked to speak at a conference in April about the millennial generation and technology. AS I understand it, I've been asked to take a futurist approach and examine how the millennial generation will interact with technology roughly 10 years from now. I figured since I'm preparing materials for my presentation anyway, I might as well do it here and hopefully get a bit of a dialogue going.
I was contacted because of my November, 2004 American Demographics article titled, "Coming of Age". In that article I examine the impact of mobile technology on youth. I talked about the big stuff like texting and ringtones, as well as some of the lesser talked about issues, such as cord-cutting (living without a land line, like me) and possible social ramifications of growing up with your own private phone and number.
Since mobile technology is definitely going to be a section of this presentation, I'm going to use this entry to start organizing some of my ideas and links. Feel free to comment on anything you find interesting.
Demographics:
1. Brier, Noah R. "Coming of Age." American Demographics. November, 2004.
"According to youthKnowhow, a London-based company that specializes in understanding youth behavior and applying this to develop better product and marketing strategies for wireless and new media companies, about 25.7 million kids in the U.S. between the ages of 5 and 19 are cell phone users. That's 40 percent of the population in that age range. As you might imagine, the balance tilts toward older kids. About 82 percent of 15- to 19-year-olds own mobile phones, versus 35 percent of 10- to 14-year-olds, and just 1 percent of 5- to 9-year-olds. By 2006, though, youthKnowhow projects that mobile penetration will reach 52 percent of the 5- to 19-year-old population. Add 20- to 24-year-olds to this mix and the yearly cell phone spend for 2006 could reach $16.7 billion among the under-24 demographic."
2. CEA.
"CEA Survey Gives Insight Into Generation Tech: Exploring The Illusive Teen Consumer." CE.org. December 14, 2004.
Further showing the purchasing power of this age group, the number one item that teens have purchased with their own money was a cellular phone, with 23 percent of teens having bought one for themselves.
Texting:
3. Ki-hong, Kim. "New Forms of Online Communication Spell End of Email Era in Korea." Chosun.com. November 28, 2004.
The ebbing of email is a phenomenon peculiar to Korea, an IT power. Leading the big change, unprecedented in the world, are our teens and those in their 20's. The perception that "email is an old and formal communication means" is rapidly spreading among them. "I use email when I send messages to elders," said a college student by the name of Park. For 22-year-old office worker Kim, "I use email only for receiving cellphone and credit card invoices."
. . .
The ebb of email is confirmed by a diminishing trend in pageviews, a tabulation of frequency in service used by email users. Daum Communication, the top email business in the country, saw its email service pageviews fall over 20 percent from 3.9 billion in October last year to 3 billion in October this year. By contrast, with SK Telecom, the nation's No. 1 communication firm, monthly SMS transmissions skyrocketed over 40 percent in October from 2.7 billion instances last October. Cyworld, a representative mini-homepage firm, witnessed its pageviews multiply over 26-fold from 650 million instances in October last year to 17 billion in October this year.
4. Brier, Noah R.
"Coming of Age." American Demographics. November, 2004.
Among 5,500 mobile users surveyed by the Yankee Group, of the 80 percent of teens who have text messaging capabilities on their cell phone, 69 percent report sending or receiving at least a message a week. Of the 69 percent that text, almost 1 in 5 reports sending over 21 messages a week. "If we look at what you can do with your phone beyond voice, the most ubiquitous feature on a phone is text. If we look at teens and the youth market in general who have embraced IM on the PC, text is a natural," says Yankee Group senior analyst Linda Barrabee.
Wyndham Lewis, director of youthKnowhow, points to the American Idol TV show as a way to illustrate the popularity of text messaging in the U.S. "In the American elections in November 2002, 18- to 24-year-olds cast 8.6 million votes, compared with 16 million votes for American Idol." What's more, Lewis explains that even though young people could easily have voted for free using a land line, the majority chose to place their vote by text message. This is not entirely surprising, as more and more of America's youth are choosing to make their mobile phone their main voice communication medium. "Increasingly, people are just giving out their mobile numbers," says Lewis. This practice could have a huge impact on the telecommunications industry in the years to come.
Multimedia:
5.
Multimedia phone penetration is highest amongst those under the age of 18 with 67 percent. This is as opposed to 63 percent for 19-24 and 57% for 25-34.
37 percent of under-18s use photo messaging at least once a month. This compares to 29 percent when looking at all photo-capable mobile users.
Not surprisingly, under-18s are also most likely to download & play music (35 percent), download games (31 percent) and game with another player (16 percent).
(All data from "Mobinet Index 2004".)
Cord Cutting:
6. Kinzie, Susan. "Colleges' Land Lines Nearing Silent End". Washington Post. February 12, 2005.
Across the country, wired phones are becoming obsolete. Although not many colleges have eliminated them, "almost every major school is evaluating it," said Jeri Semer, executive director of the Association for Communications Technology Professionals in Higher Education.. . . .
It wasn't that long ago, a generation perhaps, when students had to wait in line to use communal phones in dormitory hallways. Five years ago, just over one-third of U.S. college students had cell phones on campus, according to a national survey by the market-research firm Student Monitor. In the fall, nearly nine of 10 did.
7. Woodyard, Chris.
"Some Offices Opt for Cell Phones Only." USA Today. January 24, 2005.
In a move that other companies might soon follow, Sprint announced Monday that about 8,000 employees at Ford Motor will jettison their desktop phones and use cell phones exclusively.
Now that I have some of these quotes organized in one place I'll start to comment on them. Feel free to tell me some of your thoughts, I'd love to know what you guys think about current mobile trends. I added the numbers to make it easier to comment on specific items, so jump right in.
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I've been getting emails lately about the need to register cell phone numbers on the national do-not-call list. Well, folks, it turns out that this, like most email forwards, are simply not true. I'll explain in a bit, but here's what the forward looks like:
Starting Jan 1, 2005, all cell phone numbers will be made public to telemarketing firms. So this means as of Jan 1, your cell phone may start ringing off the hook with telemarketers, but unlike your home phone, most of you pay for your incoming calls. These telemarketers will eat up your free minutes and end up costing you money in the long run.
According to the National Do Not Call List, you have until Dec. 15th 2004 to get on the national "Do not call list" for cell phones. They said that you need to call 1-888-382-1222 from the cell phone that you wish to have put on the "do not call list" to be put on the list. They also said you can do it online at www.donotcall.gov
Before continuing, it's important to note that it can't hurt to register your cell phone number, however, this December 15th deadline is absurd. This according to
Snopes.com:
Some versions of the exhortation to cell phone users to add their names to the Do Not Call Registry erroneously state there is a 15 December 2004 deadline for getting listed. Says Lois Greisman, the Federal Trade Commission official who oversees the anti-telemarketing registry: "There is no deadline; there never has been a deadline to register."
It's most likely that this email is somehow related to a cell phone 411 directory that is being developed by most of the major carriers. According to the
Washington Post [registration required]:
The distress appears to stem from a plan, unveiled this fall, by several cell phone companies to set up national directory assistance, a 411 system, for cell phone numbers. Sprint Corp., Cingular Wireless, AT&T Wireless Services Inc., Nextel Communications Inc., Alltel Corp. and T-Mobile USA Inc. have hired Qsent Inc. to develop the directory; Verizon Wireless, the nation's largest wireless provider is not participating.
Next spring, each cell phone company will begin asking its customers if they want their numbers included in the wireless directory, according to Qsent spokesman Jeff Fishburn. Inclusion is free, but customers have to choose, or opt in, to have their number in the directory. The directory is not expected to be activated until next fall at the earliest.
Putting your number in the do-not-call registry will not keep you out of 411.
In the end, this doesn't matter that much. It can't hurt you to include your number in the registry, but it's creating a lot of unnecessary worry. (Also, if you haven't learned it yet, before you forward anything, go to Snopes.com and look into it. They're an urban legends reference page and they cover practically everything.)
This has been a public service announcement from your friends at NoahBrier.com.
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Just wanted to point everyone to my newest American Demographics article which has been posted over at
Looksmart findarticles. The article is titled
"Coming of Age" and examines the ways that mobile technology has impacted youth and youth culture. I moved beyond just the simple trends like text messaging and ringtones and tried to look at the bigger impacts on life and relationships. For instance, what will happen as these young people who are getting mobile phones at eight years old have their own homes? Will then get a landline or will they choose to "cut the cord?" Already, we're seeing that 14 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds have cut the cord. But what about the social aspects of a landline? It becomes a community phone, a number that the family shares and helps to advertise a relationship to the world. When these young people grow up and get married what kind of effect will seperate lines have on their relationship? What happens when they have kids and Grandma wants to call the house with no one in particular to talk to? It's something to think about, and if you're interested
go read about. I think the article is fairly interesting and worth reading. If you do, feel free to drop me a line or leave a comment and let me know what you think. I'm happy to discuss anything you think about. I'll leave you with a few paragraphs from the article about "cord-cutting" and more:
"For people 5 years old and under, this whole wireless thing will be meaningless because they'll just grow up with them," Lewis says. "It will just be a phone, it won't be a mobile phone or a cell phone." With that said, what happens when it's time for these young people to move into their own house or apartment and they need to make the decision of whether or not they need a land line? Overall, 6 percent of Americans currently use their cell phone as their only phone line reports the Yankee Group. That number skews heavily toward young adults, with 14 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds having already cut the cord.
"The decision to cut the cord is equally split between cost saving and lifestyle issues: 35 percent said cost while 32 percent said they don't need one because they're hardly ever at home," says Barrabee. What's more, an additional 18 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds expect to cut the cord in the next five years. One of the issues associated with this trend is how it will affect relationships among families.
Historically, the home telephone has been something that signifies a relationship; it is a number shared among a group of people. "The land line for voice purposes is seen as the communal phone. A grandparent calls the house and doesn't care who in the family they get," says Mark Page, vice president of management consulting firm A.T. Kearney, which along with Cambridge University released the Mobinet Index 2004, which examines mobile technology trends around the world. "No one has come up with a communal mobile phone yet." So, young people today are able to create their own identity completely outside the control of their families.
"One of the core teen experiences is the process of finding your own identity and separating from parents and learning about your individuality. One of the things that the cell phone can do in such an amazing way is promote that spirit of independence and individuality. It's really not monitored at all by parents," says McKinney. "Parents got smart and moved PCs out of the bedroom and into the kitchen to keep kids off the Internet in dangerous ways and to keep them from IMing all night long. Now, kids have their cell phones and they're doing the same things on them."
I've got a lot going on at the moment, but I'll try to be a little better with the posting. I've got some interesting stuff I've been working on that I'd like to share. Keep checking in and I'll try to give you your fill of whatever it is I write about here.
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Hi, I'm 