You have arrived at the web home of Noah Brier. This is mostly an archive of over a decade of blogging and other writing. You can read more about me or get in touch. If you want more recent writing of mine, most of that is at my BrXnd marketing x AI newsletter and Why Is This Interesting?, a daily email for the intellectually omnivorous.

September, 2009


A few times over the last few months I have talked about overconfidence and wondered how so many people could think they're above average. Well, it turns out (or at least some scientists are arguing) it's a good evolutionary strategy:
In fact, if the potential reward is at least twice as great as the cost of competing, then overconfidence is the best strategy. In fact, overconfidence is actually advantageous on average, because it boosts ambition, resolve, morale, and persistence. In other words, overconfidence is the best way to maximize benefits over costs when risks are uncertain.
So by being overconfident you can sometimes beat the odds and actually achieve that which you otherwise probably shouldn't (at least that's how I understand it). Seems simple enough, I guess.
September 25, 2009
Noah Brier | Thanks for reading. | Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk.