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You have arrived at the web home of Noah Brier. I currently run Alephic, an AI-first strategy and software partner for marketing's most complex challenges. You can read more about me or get in touch. If you want more recent writing of mine, most of that is in my newsletters BRXND marketing x AI and Why Is This Interesting?, a daily email for the intellectually omnivorous.

September, 2009

Overconfidence

A few times over the last few months I have talked about overconfidence and wondered how so many people could think they're above average. Well, it turns out (or at least some scientists are arguing) it's a good evolutionary strategy:
In fact, if the potential reward is at least twice as great as the cost of competing, then overconfidence is the best strategy. In fact, overconfidence is actually advantageous on average, because it boosts ambition, resolve, morale, and persistence. In other words, overconfidence is the best way to maximize benefits over costs when risks are uncertain.
So by being overconfident you can sometimes beat the odds and actually achieve that which you otherwise probably shouldn't (at least that's how I understand it). Seems simple enough, I guess.
September 25, 2009
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Noah Brier | Thanks for reading. | Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk.